Are You Falling Prey to the Illusion of Certainty?
This is a contributed post and may contain affiliate links. The thoughts and ideas expressed may not be exactly what the ghostwriter Scott Sery believes. But he did read it, and signed off on it, so it’s at least pretty close.
We’re taught – by example more than by design – to believe that certainty is the reward for patience; that if we wait long enough, gather enough information, and think hard enough, the perfect decision will just reveal itself. In reality, our most worthwhile choices never become perfectly clear. They tend to hover in that gray area where both risk and opportunity coexist, and the only way to learn what’s on the other side is to make a move.
Why certainty can be a mirage in business decisions
In business, the conditions we really crave – predictability, stability, and guarantees – rarely arrive at the moment we really want them. Markets shift, priorities evolve. Competitors move faster, or simply differently, than we expect. By the time a decision feels safe, it is often no longer a strategic advantage.
That’s why waiting for absolute clarity can become its own form of costly hesitation. It feels responsible and even admirable, and it is definitely understandable. But it often quietly turns into a barrier between where you are and the momentum you dearly need.
How to act when the information isn’t perfect
When you are stuck between decisions, aiming for certainty can be the last thing you need. Instead, aim for direction. Reduce the choice to the small number of factors that actually matter to your goals, not the dozens that create more noise than they do value. Look for information that sharpens your understanding, not that which promises to remove all doubt.
Sometimes, that means consulting something concrete, whether that is financial data, customer feedback, or an overview of different metal building systems – not because the topic is your main focus, but because clarity comes from details grounded in fact and measurable information, applied faithfully.
Once you know enough to make a responsible choice, the next step is to commit. Action creates feedback, feedback creates confidence. And confidence creates momentum.
Progress as a form of confidence-building
The truth of the matter is that even if you wait and wait, certainty almost never appears because while you are waiting, the questions can change. You can nail down 100 small details and #101 can still be hiding around a corner to unsettle your plans – and then you’re back to square one. Even the best-laid plans can end up being wrong. So the only way to be truly confident is to get on the front foot and take control.
The best way to strengthen your decision-making isn’t waiting for certainty; it is to take the next step with intention and purpose. Even a small move forward can dissipate the fog of war. You learn, adjust, and move forward again. Before too long you will realize that the clarity you were waiting for didn’t come before the action, it came because of it. And on the other hand, that concern you feel when making a final decision is still there when you plan everything down to the final comma. So, yes, take account of safety and bottom lines before you leap – but don’t spend too long waiting for the perfect move. It may not exist.